UFC Fight Night 7: Performify's Picks (2024)

Here are my thoughts on the entire card for UFC Fight Night 7. (Feel free to use my suggestions when you enter our predictions contest.)

(All lines are current as of the time of this posting.)

Shonie Carter everyone surely remembers from his outlandish behavior on the last season of The Ultimate Fighter. Shonie has a 34-15-7 record in MMA and is 34 years old. His last visit to the UFC outside of the “exhibition” contests in TUF was in the summer of 2005 at UFC 53, where he got KO’d in the first round by Nate Quarry.

Marcus Davis, fighting Forrest Petz, was on the undercard of the Shamrock/Ortiz III Spike TV card. Petz opened a pretty nice cut on Davis’ nose early, but Davis managed to secure a guillotine that ended the fight in the final seconds of the first round.

Shonie really hasn’t beaten anyone of note in a while. He upset then-undefeated Militech-standout Jason Black at King of the Cage “Redemption on the River” back in February, but that was a freak win; Black somehow dislocated his elbow early in the fight, casuing a stoppage. Shonie’s fight prior to Jason Black was against BBJ artist Mike Pyle (who you might recognize as a recent fighter in the IFL championship for Bas Rutten’s Anaconda team) ââ?¬â?? and Shonie was promptly submitted in the first round via triangle. After the Black fight, he fought a punching bag in the 2-15 Alex Carter in the IFC and stopped him in the first round. Shonie’s most recent victory of note was a decision win over Jason “The Athlete” MacDonald in TKO 21 in mid-2005. If you don’t remember MacDonald offhand, I correctly predicted him to upset Ed Herman on the Shamrock/Ortiz III card. Shonie has been training at NEST (the New Era Sports Training facility) with UF veterans Din Thomas, Chris Lytle and Joe Riggs.

Davis is a little too much of an x-factor to make a big recommendation here, but I think Davis is the right play. Shonie is getting older, doesn’t seem to have a lot of tools, and is a pretty known commodity in that a lot of his fights are available for Davis to dissect. Davis has won six straight since his last loss (to Melvin Guillard at the Ultimate Fighter 2 Finale a year ago). I think Davis takes this with a second-round TKO.

Victor “the Matrix” Valimaki is a Canadian fighter with an 8-2 record in MMA. He started in MMA back in 2001, running off a 3-1 record before losing to Rob MacDonald at Maximum Fighting Championships 5 back in September 2002. Valimaki then didn’t have a fight for three years until coming back in September 2005, when he picked up a unanimous-decision win over the aging Dan “The Beast” Severn in WFC. He’s won all five of his fights since rejoining the fight game in 2005, including the submission of a pretty decent Canadian fighter Jason Day back in early September, and a unanimous-decision win over former Pancrase fighter Vernon “Tiger” White just three weeks later. Vakami has won half of his fights by decision, so he’s clearly conditioned and ready to go the distance in a fight.

David Heath fights out of Tulsa, Okla. and holds a 6-0 MMA record. Heath made his UFC debut on the undercard of UFC 62: Liddell vs Sobral, where he submitted Cory Walmsley by rear-naked choke in the first round. Heath also has additional experience in amateur MMA bouts, and trains with Tom Jones and Clayton Marrs as part of the Absolute Combat Alliance out of Mikey Burnett’s gym. Heath is the current light heavyweight champion in Freestyle Cage Fighting (an Oklahoma-centric regional fighting organization) unless he’s abandoned that title with his move to the UFC (which I haven’t been able to find). Heath prefers to stand and fight on his feet, but has solid takedowns and is versed in submissions.

Valimaki first appears to have an experience edge, given that he’s got 10 total fights and has been fighting in MMA since 2001. But Heath does have one edge in experience in that he’s been in the UFC octagon before, and trains with a very solid team. Despite being two names that might not be familiar to most casual UFC fans, this should be a solid, well-matched fight. This line is pretty well set, in my opinion, as Valimaki definitely has a chance here, but Health should likely win this fight. The line currently translates to a 63% chance of Heath winning, and I think that is a pretty accurate prediction. This fight could go either way here. I’ll predict Heath by TKO via strikes on the ground, second round.

(If you’re interested, you can see a quick video intro of the two fighters via UFC.com.)

Santiago is 11-6 in MMA, and he fights with American Top Team (Jeff Monson, Denis Kang, Din Thomas, Thiago Alves, etc.). We’ve last seen Santiago on the past two UFC Fight Night cards; he got KO’d by Chris Leben at UFN 6 in August, and he KO’d Vale Tudo fighter Justin Levens atUFN 5 two months prior.

Alan “The Talent” Belcher is a young fighter at 22 years old, sports an 8-2 MMA record and made his UFC debut on the undercard of UFC 62 (Liddell vs. Sobral), where he lost via unanimous decision to Yushin Okami. Belcher took the fight on short notice, filling in for an injured David Terrell. Belcher’s other loss was another unanimous-decision loss to Marvin Eastman back in September 2005 in World Extreme Fighting.

I’ll give Santiago the edge here in training with a better team and with two UFC fights under his belt, but this isn’t a fight I’d load up on by any means. Belcher looked solid going the distance with Okami, and this could certainly go either way. My prediction: Santiago by decision.

Fioravanti (Fee-Or-Vahn-Teh) is yet another American Top Team fighter, holding a 9-1 MMA record at only 25 years old. Luigi has two UFC fights under his belt: a loss to Chris Leben in April at UFC Fight Night 4, and a first-round KO over Solomon Hutcherson at The Ultimate Fighter 3 finale in June.

Menne has a very long pedigree, befitting a 32-year-old fighter who has been in MMA since 1997. Menne has fought extensively in the Extreme Challenge organization as well as in five UFC fights, where he is 2-3. Menne began his UFC career at UFC 24 in 2000, defeating Fabiano Iha with a unanimous decision, and he then defeated Gil Castillo by unanimous decision at UFC 33 in late 2001. He was KO’d by Murilo Bustamante in early 2002 at UFC 35, and was then KO’d by “the New York Badass” Phil Baroni at UFC 39 in mid 2002. Menne then jumped back outside the UFC, fighting mainly in Extreme Challenge. In his last few fights, Menne was TKO’d by Ed Herman at EC: 63 in July 2005, lost via unanimous decision to Jake Shields at Rumble on the Rock 8 in January of this year, defeated a .500 fighter named Alex Reid in Cage Rage 16 in April, and then returned to the UFC in June for UFC Fight Night 5, where he lost a unanimous decision to Josh Koscheck.

The current line puts Fioravanti a 80% favorite, and I think that’s pretty appropriate. Menne is a veteran fighter, but this is a pretty clear opportunity for Fioravanti to extend his record with a win over a guy with a decent resume. Both fighters should be willing to trade, and as such — except where you’ve got a clear disparity in fighter talent — guys willing to stand and trade always gives the underdog a puncher’s chance, so it’s a dangerous fight to load up on, but an one easy to predict: Fioravanti by first round KO. At 10-1, despite a loss to Chris Leben, I imagine you’ll see Fioravanti in the near future in a more prominent role (i.e. actually on a UFC card) at 185, ready or notââ?¬Â¦

(If you’re interested, you can see a quick video intro of the two fighters via UFC.com.)

Brock Larson is a highly touted fighter with the majority of his experience coming in the Extreme Challenge series, with an 18-1 record, and 16 of those wins coming by stoppage, usually by submission. His sole defeat was at his UFC debut, a unanimous-decision loss to Jon Fitch at UFC Fight Night 2 back in October 2005. Larson has since whipped off six more wins mostly in EC and IFC, and now looks to make his return to the octagon more successful than his last visit. Larson holds a blue belt in jiu-jitsu, and he won the Extreme Challenge 63 tournament.

Keita “K-Taro” Nakamura has a 13-0-2 MMA record, mostly in a Japanese series called Greatest Common Multiple (or GCM for short). But K-Taro has also fought in Shooto five times. In fact, K-Taro is the Professional Shooto Pacific Middleweight Champion, ranked No. 1 in the world there.

I’m really, really surprised to see this line this high. In fact it opened even higher, and I’m a good part of the reason its lower already. K-Taro is not an unknown name, and I know Larson is highly touted, but K-Taro is a very strong fighter , and I think he’s much more than the 28.5% chance to win he’s being offered here. K-Taro by rear-naked choke in the first round.

(If you’re interested, you can see a quick video intro of the two fighters via UFC.com.)

Byrnes is from Hawaii, and as you might expect, has been seen in Rumble on the Rock, specifically RotR 9, where he kneebarred Matt Knaub. He holds a 6-0 MMA record, and his first MMA fight was in a small Hawaii series called Full Contact Showdown in January 2005. Logan Clark is 3-0 in MMA in Minnesota, and all three fights have happened since March of this year. Two of Clark’s wins are from a Minnesota regional series called Ultimate Combat Sports, and one fight took place in Extreme Challenge. All six of Clark’s victories are by submission. Two relative newcomers — and I don’t have much information on either. I’d recommend staying away from this fight entirely, unless I can find some more information on a side. In a battle of two unknowns, if forced to make a pick, I’m always going to take the underdog paying better than 3:1. Let’s say Clark by the upset TKO.

Sanchez rolls in with a 16-0 MMA record (5-0 in the UFC) just two weeks shy of his 25th birthday. Sanchez has wins in the UFC over Kenny Florian (first Ultimate Fighter finale), Brian Gassaway (UFC 54), Nick Diaz (Ultimate Fighter 2 finale), John Alessio (UFC 60) and finally Karo Parisyan at UFC Fight Night 6. I was fortunate enough to be at UFN 6 in person, in fantastic seats, and got to see this amazing fight up close and personal (as well as review it in HD a couple times since). I used to be one of Sanchez’s biggest critics for using a “lay and pray” style, winning relatively boring fights with takedowns, ground control and little offense. That is, up until the fight with Parisyan. I’m a big fan of Karo, and this was an absolutely fantastic battle between two great MMA warriors, definitely one of the top 10 fights I’ve seen. Sanchez showed tremendous improvement in the battle with Parisyan, with great reversals, solid striking and some serious offense both on the feet and on the ground.

Joe “Diesel” Riggs is only 24 years old with a tremendous resume, holding a 25-8 record in his 33 fights (4-3 in the UFC). In his last five fights, Joe Diesel defeated Chris Lytle at UFC 55, lost to Matt Hughes in a title fight at UFC 56 at the end of 2005, defeated Nick Diaz in an upset I predicted at UFC 57 (the Liddell vs. Couture III card) back in February this year, lost to Mike Swick in the first round at UFC 60 (Hughes vs. Gracie) in May, then defeated Jason Von Flue at UFN 6 in August.

Riggs has bounced around weight classes before settling in now, it seems, at 170. In a December 5th interview, Riggs was asked how he makes it to 170 pounds. He responded: “It’s hard. I actually walk around right now at 190. My body is getting adjusted to it and I’m feeling better. It’s good, I’m happy. A couple of months ago I was like 210, but my weight’s doing great right now.” Riggs’ weight is certainly going to be a concern coming in to this fight, as that’s a good deal of weight to cut in a short period of time, especially for someone who has fluctuated extensively. Riggs is also coming off some serious personal problems, namely the death of his infant daughter and the hospitalization of his wife. While I hate to bring up either here, I have to simply because of their likely significant impact on his training and motivation. There’s no question Riggs is motivated to secure a paycheck with this fight (who can blame him for that?), but will his heart and mind be in his training? I don’t think it will here.

Riggs’ best shot to win this fight is early. Diego has amazing cardio and energy and ability to push a fight. Riggs has heavy hands and a puncher’s chance here, but once this goes past about 7]seven minutes, it’s an easy road home for Diego because of his significantly superior conditioning and ground skills. Look for Riggs to come out trying to throw bombs, and Diego to take the fight to the mat and impose his will. Sanchez is pretty strongly improved, and I definitely expect him to win, but this is a hefty line; Sanchez would have to win here 90% of the time to make this line +EV enough to consider betting it heavily. So while I’ll predict Sanchez winning by submission in the second round, I wouldn’t bet it heavy. If anything, one could normally justify a small play on Riggs as a purely +EV play, under the thinking that while Riggs won’t win this fight often, he certainly normally has a chance as an 80% underdog. But with the extenuating circ*mstances of Riggs’ personal life and the weight/conditioning concerns, I do think this is worth a play on Diego. But while Sanchez should win this fight a very high percentage of the time, I do think you can find better edges to load up on significantly.

Koscheck is another former lay-and-pray fighter who has developed very quickly into a strong, well-rounded fighter who doesn’t just rely on his superior wrestling and takedowns. Kos has an 8-1 MMA record, with six of those in the UFC, where he is 5-1 with wins over Pete Spratt, Ansar Chalangov, Dave Menne, and most recently, a first-round TKO of the decent Jonathan Goulet (possibly most infamous for his usually oddly-multicolored hair) at UFN 6 in August.

Joslin is no slouch, with a 5-2 MMA record and some decent skills from everything I’ve seen, but I think this is a steamroll fight for Koscheck, a typical showcase development fight for him. Joslin should provide a serious challenge, but this should be a one-sided fight for Koscheck, and I think this is worth a multi-unit play. Koscheck by strikes on the ground, second round.

Many forget that Karo “The Heat” Parisyan is only 24 years old simply because he’s been a big name in MMA for several years. After Karo’s close loss to Diego Sanchez at UFN 6, his record now stands at 15-4. However, if you break down that 15-4 record, Karo won six fights in 1999 before he lost twice in Reality Submission Fighting to Sean Sherk in 2000 and 2001, fought once more after losing to Sherk (a win at Reality Submission Fighting 3) then didn’t fight again for two years. Karo returned in early 2003, rattling off two quick cage-fighting wins before making his UFC debut with a submission win over Dave Strasser at UFC 44 in September 2003. Karo then lost via unanimous decision to the now-welterweight champion Georges St. Pierre at UFC 46 in early 2004, but then rolled off five straight MMA wins, four of those in the UFC (Nick Diaz at UFC 49, Chris Lytle at UFC 51, Matt Serra at UFC 53, Nick Thompson at UFC 59) before losing to Diego Sanchez by unanimous decision in that amazing war at UFN 6. So four losses to three very quality opponents: the current lightweight title holder, the current middleweight title holder, and the very strong Diego Sanchez.

Fickett is just a bit older at 26 (he actually turns 27 on Thursday) and holds a 27-4 MMA record. Fickett fought extensively in the Rage in the Cage series, all the way back from 1999 to the end of 2004, after which he made the jump to the UFC in the start of 2005 with a loss to Nick Diaz in his UFC debut at UFC 51 (February 2005). Fickett then went on to defeat Josh “the Dentist” Neer at the first Ultimate Fight Night, handed Josh Koscheck his only loss at UFN 2, before getting derailed by Josh Burkman (Fickett got caught with a first-round guillotine) at UFN 3 in January of this year. Fickett then got back on track with a win over Kurt Pellegrino at UFC 61. Despite pulling out the win in a close fight that Fickett was really close to losing to “Batman.” Pellegrino had side control on Fickett and was going for a choke, but Fickett managed to escape and take Pellegrino’s back. Not taking anything away from Fickett there (it was a solid reversal); I’m just saying the fight very easily could have gone the other way at that point.

This is another 80%-20% line, and another similar situation to Sanchez/Riggs in my opinion. There’s no question Fickett has the ability to score an upset here, but Karo is a fighter on another level and should certainly win this fight. Other than the upset of Koscheck while Kos was still developing, Fickett doesn’t have a win over anyone else of Karo’s caliber in my opinion. Karo hasn’t shown much of an ability to finish fights (he’s gone to decision in six of seven fights since 2004). I don’t expect him to finish Fickett here often, but I certainly expect the win. Karo Parisyan by unanimous decision.

* * * *

The key to wagering on MMA fights is to look at the percentages. While its easy to say Karo should win his fight, for example, the line dictates that he is an 80% favorite over Fickett. It’s easiest to explain if you looked at a series of 10 fights, all with a -400 line. If the 10 fights go 8 wins 2 losses, the net result would be: +8 units from the eight wins, and -8 units from the two losses (at -400). This results in a break-even for -400 at 80%. So if you think Karo wins this fight exactly 80% of the time, it’s a neutral EV proposition. This means that it’s like flipping a coin with a $1 wagered on either side: you don’t really stand to make a profit necessarily in the long run,;you’re going to win and lose equally. But MMA fights obviously don’t happen in series like this, so you’ve got to look at this one incident in isolation and weigh the likelihood of the outcome against the line. For example, if you were offered a -400 line (an 80% break-even occurrence) and you expected the fighter to win 90% of the time, that would be a +EV bet as you’d have a positive expected value, an edge in your own handicapping between the line being offered and the expected outcome of the fight. Identifying these edges is the key to making money long term from MMA wagering. I’ll be back soon with a “MMA Wagering 101″ writeup that will outline this in more detail. For this card, here are my recommended plays, in order of expected value:

My next two ranked plays would be Karo Parisyan and Luigi Fioravanti, but at -400 lines, they’d rank as only a “one unit to win .25 units” play, and I don’t even think it’s worth recommending here unless you just want action on more of the fights. Best of luck to everyone wagering at home, and best of luck to all the fighters involved.